Decision support for complex planning challenges - Combining expert systems, engineering-oriented modeling, machine learning, information theory, and optimization technology
title = "Decision support for complex planning challenges -
Combining expert systems, engineering-oriented
modeling, machine learning, information theory, and
optimization technology",
school = "Chalmers University of Technology",
year = "2014",
series = "Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska hogskola. Ny
serie, No 3661",
address = "SE-412 96 Goteborg, Sweden",
month = "27 " # feb,
keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, Discipulus,
Decision analysis, model blending, model mixing, data
modelling engineering-oriented modelling, energy,
environmental, optimisation, analytic hierarchy
processes, machine learning, UXO, and MEC, land mines,
unexploded bombs, removal",
abstract = "This thesis develops an approach for addressing
complex industrial planning challenges. The approach
provides advice to select and blend modelling
techniques that produce implementable optimal
solutions. Industrial applications demonstrate its
effectiveness. Industries have a need for advanced
analytic techniques that encompass and reconcile the
full range of information available regarding a
planning problem. The goal is to craft the best
possible decision in the time allotted. The pertinent
information can include subject matter expertise,
physical processes simulated in models, and
observational data. The approach described in this
paper assesses the decision challenge in two ways:
first according to the available knowledge profile
which includes the type, amount, and quality of
information available of the problem; and second,
according to the analysis and decision-support
techniques most appropriate to each profile. We use
model-mixing techniques such as machine learning and
Kalman Filtering to combine analysis methods from
various disciplines that include expert systems,
engineering-oriented numerical and symbolic modeling,
and machine learning in a graded, principled manner. A
suite of global and local optimisation methods handle
the range of optimization tasks arising in the
demonstrated engineering projects. The methods used
include the global and local nonlinear optimization
algorithms. The thesis consists of four appended
papers. Paper I uses subject matter expertise modelling
to provide decision analysis regarding the
environmental issue of mercury retirement. Paper II
provides the framework for developing optimal
remediation designs for subsurface groundwater
monitoring and contamination mitigation using numerical
models based on physical understanding. Paper III
provides the results of a machine learning study using
the Compiling Genetic Programming System (CGPS) on
multiple industrial data sets. This study resulted in a
breakthrough for identifying underground unexploded
ordnance (UXO) and munitions and explosives of concern
(MEC) from inert buried objects. Paper IV develops and
uses the model mixing and optimisation approach to
expound on understanding the MEC identification
technique. It uses the methods in the first three
papers along with additional technology. Each thesis
paper includes complimentary citations and web links to
selected publications that further demonstrate the
value of this approach; either via industrial
application or inclusion in US government guidance
documents.",
notes = "Winner the top prize in the research category
competition at the American Academy of Environmental
Engineers and Scientists (aaees.org). Heavily based on
thesis. 'Physics-Based Management Optimization
Technology for Supporting Environmental and Water
Resource Management' HydroGeoLogic, Inc.
http://www.aaees.org/e3scompetition-winners-2017gp-research.php
PBMO