Elsevier

Ecological Modelling

Volume 222, Issue 17, 10 September 2011, Pages 3149-3156
Ecological Modelling

Waterfowls habitat modeling: Simulation of nest site selection for the migratory Little Tern (Sterna albifrons) in the Nakdong estuary

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.05.032Get rights and content

Abstract

This paper aims to find patterns in nest site selection by Little Terns Sterna albifrons, in the Nakdong estuary in South Korea. This estuary is important waterfowl stopover and breeding habitat, located in the middle of the East Asia-Australasian Flyway. The Little Tern is a common species easily observed near the seashore but their number is gradually declining around the world. We investigated their nests and eggs on a barrier islet in the Nakdong estuary during the breeding season (May to June, 2007), and a pattern for the nest site selection was identified using genetic programming (GP). The GP generated a predictive rule-set model for the number of Little Tern nests (training: R2 = 0.48 and test: 0.46). The physical features of average elevation, variation of elevation, plant coverage, and average plant height were estimated to determine the influence on nest numbers for Little Tern. A series of sensitivity analyses stressed that mean elevation and vegetation played an important role in nest distribution for Little Tern. The influence of these two variables could be maximized when elevation changed moderately within the sampled quadrats. The study results are regarded as a good example of applying GP to vertebrate distribution patterning and prediction with several important advantages compared to conventional modeling techniques, and can help establish a management or restoration strategy for the species.

Highlights

► This paper aims to find patterns in nest site selection by Little Terns Sterna albifrons, using an empirical modelling algorithm; genetic programming (GP). ► Nest distribution was surveyed for the species, and physical environment data were used as forcing functions. ► The developed model provided useful information for the explanation of Little Tern nest distribution patterns. ► Monospecific colony of Little Tern exhibited different patterns (sensitivity to mean elevation from sea level) from mix colonies of multi-species. ► The results of this study are challenging due to the importance of estuarine areas globally as refuge sites and because of the limited effort in modeling research based on animal species in these areas.

Introduction

Habitat degradation will lead to decreases in the number of species and/or individuals, which is very apparent for seabirds assemblages, including migratory birds (Davies, 1981). In particular, many migratory avian species are protected due to limited numbers and sensitivity to habitat change. Nevertheless it is important to note that more mathematically quantitative standards are used as analytical techniques except in some experimental approaches. In this regard, modeling bird habitat can; provide objective criteria for habitat protection and reinforce bio-conservation strategies in establishing a natural sanctuary. A purpose of habitat modeling is to directly simulate or indirectly infer behavioral patterns of ecological entities in response to changes in environmental factors, such as human disturbance, subsidence of estuarine area, or global warming. There have been numerous efforts at predicting or patterning habitat suitability for avifauna, such as using regression for prediction (Brotons et al., 2004), multi-variate statistics like ordination (Fielding and Haworth, 1995), or Lidar-derived habitat structure analysis (Broughton et al., 2006, Goetz et al., 2007). The first two approaches are based on a collected habitat characteristics database, such as number of nests, clutch size, or bird species individual, in order to adapt the initial model structure, while the last explores relationships between birds and habitat according to species territory and diversity.

Recent advances in computer science enable researchers to speed up the calculation process for predictive model development, which may provide opportunities for importing numerous forcing functions into model construction. Comparatively, using sophisticated computation algorithms such as genetic programming (GP) is thought of as an alternative pathway to discover underlying patterns in the collected dataset. Among the various machine learning algorithms, GP has two advantages in the so-called ‘global search for optimal solution’ and ‘evolutionary variable selection’. The former encourages its utility when a local minima problem is expected, which has to be considered in connectionist approaches (Gil-Tena et al., 2010, Lee et al., 2007, O’Hanley, 2009). Increases in the number of forcing function do not guarantee the increase of model performance (Jørgensen, 1997), and even using a small number of forcing functions, which are strongly related to the output variable, is more crucial for model predictability (Jeong et al., 2006a).

Therefore, in this study, we adopted GP, an efficient branch algorithm of evolutionary computation (EC) supported by previous research (Jeong et al., 2003, Jeong et al., 2010, Kim et al., 2007a), to develop a prediction model for the distribution of Little Tern Sterna albifrons nests on a barrier islet, in accordance with physical habitat characteristics. This species migrates between South Korea and Australia, and nests in the Nakdong estuary, located in southern Korea, from April to May. We surveyed the distribution of Little Tern nests on a barrier islet which supports this species, and developed an ecological model for the explanation of habitat preference using GP. Predictability and model structure are discussed in accordance with ecological characteristics of the species.

Section snippets

Study site and data collection

The Nakdong estuary is located in the southeastern part of South Korea (35° 05′N, 128°55′E) near the middle of the Australasian Flyway (Fig. 1A). The estuary supports more than 200 avifaunal species including migratory birds (Fig. 1B; Lee et al., 2010). Rapid industrialization and urbanization has affected the loss of estuarine wetlands and riparian zones along the lower Nakdong River and the estuary since the 1980s. We surveyed the Little Tern Sterna albifrons nests distribution on the islet

Results

From the survey results, an increasing tendency in the number of nests was observed in the quadrats where a relatively high mean elevation was measured (Fig. 4). The mean elevation increased by ca. 50 cm in the quadrats No. 55–80, and in those quadrats, the elevation variation was relatively larger (Fig. 4A and B). Quadrats with higher elevation were strongly vegetated compared to other areas (Fig. 4C and D). The number of Little Tern's nests tended to increase in those quadrats, however

Discussion

The application of GP to nest number prediction was successful in terms of predictability and variable input selectivity. Even though the prediction accuracy of GP was relatively moderate, selecting a small number of influencing input variables is a feasible in ecological model development (Jeong et al., 2006a). The application of GP to a long-term ecological database indirectly provides evidence that a small number of input variables, selected based on a global search rather than using all

Conclusion

In this study, a hundred quadrats were established to survey the distribution of Little Tern nests in the Nakdong estuary. A barrier islet where this species was abundant was selected for the survey. The number of nests used for monitoring was assessed along with other environmental variables, such as elevation, vegetation coverage and height. A non-linear modeling algorithm using genetic programming was applied to the survey results, producing a simple rule set model (consisting of

Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate Ms. Hee-Sun Park for her assistance of identifying the plant species during the survey. In addition, we thank Mr. Maurice Lineman for English proof reading in the process of manuscript preparation. This study was partly financially supported by the BK21 Research Group for Marine and Silver Biotechnology in the Pusan National University (post-doc research grant for Dr. K.-S. Jeong). Also this research was supported by the Korea National Long-Term Ecological Research

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